Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Euro Outlook

Post-easter uptrend continues (assuming this PA tonight is a retrace against the trend) then I'm looking for longs building a position towards 3500 and 3600

There is talk of 'huge' ascending triangle on USD index getting ready to blow

Fits in nicely with the 10-day wide DB on EURUSD at 3100

So right now we are retracing back from the first test of 3400

This is wave c of an a-b-c correction: when wave c is complete then wave 3 begins: wave 3 is usually 1.6 X wave 1: which takes price close to 3600: so I am looking for something like 3250 -> 3600: we had a bigger range than that last week so it's not hard to do

What about the move up from 3090 to 3390 (300 pips) that is what I call wave 1

62% ret of wave1 = 3204 ; so my ideal scenario this week is 3200 -> 3600.

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